What Sequoia Is Thinking
*Synthesized from 20 recent items.* ## AI & agents - AGI arrived: baseline knowledge (2022) + reasoning (o1, 2024) + iteration (agents, 2026) = done. [2026: This is AGI](/sequoia/2026-this-is-agi) - Agents run 30 minutes unassisted; capability doubles every 7 months (METR). Day-long tasks by 2028. [2026: This is AGI](/sequoia/2026-this-is-agi) - Shift from talkers (2023–24 chatbots) to doers (2026–27 agents) is the defining phase transition. [2026: This is AGI](/sequoia/2026-this-is-agi) - Two killer apps — coding tools and ChatGPT — each approaching $10B revenue; $0→$1B club forming. [AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs](/sequoia/ai-in-2026-the-tale-of-two-ais) - LangGraph already in production at Uber, Klarna, LinkedIn, JPMorgan — agent infra is post-experimental. [LangChain: From Agent 0-to-1 to Agentic Engineering](/sequoia/langchain-from-agent-0-to-1-to-agentic-engineering) - Specialist agents live: Harvey (law), OpenEvidence (medicine), XBOW (security), Juicebox (recruiting), Ricursive (chips). [2026: This is AGI](/sequoia/2026-this-is-agi) - Chip design: AI cuts 18–36 months to hours; human labor is 50–70% of a $600M design cost. [Partnering with Ricursive Intelligence](/sequoia/partnering-with-ricursive-intelligence-a-premier-frontier-lab-pioneering-ai-for-chip-design) - Voice is the next primary interface; Sesame bets emotional intelligence beats utility-focused assistants. [Partnering with Sesame](/sequoia/partnering-with-sesame-a-new-era-for-voice) ## Enterprise software / services / GTM - For every $1 on software, $6 goes to services — the next trillion-dollar company captures the $6. [Services: The New Software](/sequoia/services-the-new-software) - AI autopilots (WithCoverage, Crosby) beat copilots (Harvey, Rogo) on value capture — outcomes, not tools. [Services: The New Software](/sequoia/services-the-new-software) - Labor TAM: insurance brokerage $140–200B, IT managed services $100B+, consulting $300–400B. [Services: The New Software](/sequoia/services-the-new-software) - Wedge into outsourced, intelligence-heavy work first — existing budgets, tolerance for external delivery. [Services: The New Software](/sequoia/services-the-new-software) - Enterprise DIY fatigue is accelerating; incumbents losing ground to AI-native startups. [AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs](/sequoia/ai-in-2026-the-tale-of-two-ais) - Organizational hierarchy — unchanged 2,000 years — finally obsolete; Block replacing managers with world models. [From Hierarchy to Intelligence](/sequoia/from-hierarchy-to-intelligence) - Moat requires per-customer economic graphs (Block: Cash App + Square); without it, AI is cost optimization only. [From Hierarchy to Intelligence](/sequoia/from-hierarchy-to-intelligence) ## Founders & company building - Best founders play opening, midgame, and endgame simultaneously — sequential play is the failure mode. [The Opening, Midgame and Endgame in Startups](/sequoia/the-opening-midgame-and-endgame-in-startups) - Bet founders before products: Sequoia backed Khimji as a partner in 2019, years before BlockIt existed. [The Most Precious Resource](/sequoia/the-most-precious-resource) - Top AI startups in 2025: >$1M revenue per employee. Market pull, not push. [AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs](/sequoia/ai-in-2026-the-tale-of-two-ais) - AI startups using AI for legal, recruiting, and sales build a self-improving flywheel incumbents can't match. [AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs](/sequoia/ai-in-2026-the-tale-of-two-ais) - Bootstrapped to $1M ARR with 4 people signals product-market fit before raising (Juicebox). [Why We're Partnering with Juicebox](/sequoia/why-were-partnering-with-juicebox-the-recruiting-platform-founders-are-obsessed-with) ## Market structure / economy / ecosystem - Data center supply chain can't match hyperscaler CapEx; TSMC revenues +50% since 2022, CapEx only +10%. [AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs](/sequoia/ai-in-2026-the-tale-of-two-ais) - Abundance of AI content compounds scarcity premium on trusted IP — Netflix's $82B Warner bet is the template. [The Abundance Paradox: Why Netflix Paid $82B for Scarcity](/sequoia/the-abundance-paradox-why-netflix-paid-82b-for-scarcity) - USDC weekly volume: $5B (2022) → $23B (2024) — stablecoin rails replacing SWIFT for global remittances. [Aspora: Cross-Border Banking Takes Center Stage](/sequoia/aspora-spotlight) - Physical AI addresses 80% of global GDP; hardware is the next major frontier after software-only AI. [Building Tomorrow's Transformational Companies](/sequoia/seed-venture-funds-2025) --- *Last updated: 2026-04-15 15:01 UTC*
