Why High-Dividend Stocks Win: Hiroki Takashi on Japan, China, and 2032 Strategy

Monex Securities Chief Strategist Hiroki Takashi argues stocks perpetually rise at 7% annually and makes the case for a US-Japan-China allocation through 2032.

• Stocks rise ~7% annually for three structural reasons: inflation erodes cash value, corporate profits grow nominally with prices, and index survival bias filters out failures automatically.
• Tokyo Stock Exchange total listed shares have fallen for 7 consecutive years as buybacks reduce supply, making surviving shares scarcer and more valuable.
• Japan’s 20% annual stock gains over the past 3 years were largely buyback-driven PBR reform, not organic growth; the next phase requires genuine growth-stock markets.
• Recommended 2032 allocation: US (technology and economic dynamism), Japan (large upside from still-lagging corporate reform), China (AI and robotics capabilities rival or exceed the US in some areas).
• High-dividend stocks consistently outperform — even Hiroki calls it an academic mystery, since dividend drops should offset yield; companies with progressive (never-cut) dividend policies show the best results.
• Longevity risk is underpriced: GLP-1 drugs (Eli Lilly), Alzheimer’s research, and brain-computer interfaces could push lifespans to 150, making age-based allocation formulas (100 minus age = equity %) dangerously conservative.
• Japan’s manufacturing depth — materials, components inside global supply chains — is the realistic growth path; flashy consumer hits like iPhone are unlikely but Japan is inside them.

2026-04-26 · Watch on YouTube