Taiwan Crisis Is Japan's Crisis: Tanaka Takayuki on Island Chain Strategy

Nikkei editor Tanaka Takayuki argues that a Taiwan conflict would hit Japan harder than a Hormuz closure, and that deterrence — not sanctions — is the only reliable defense.

• A Taiwan conflict would disrupt Japan’s LNG imports (over half sourced from Southeast Asia and Australia), semiconductors, and food supply — dwarfing the impact of the current Hormuz crisis.
• China’s First Island Chain runs from Kyushu through Okinawa and Taiwan; China treats the entire enclosed sea as sovereign territory, leaving Vietnam, Philippines, and Malaysia almost no coast outside the line.
• The Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines is a simultaneous chokepoint for nuclear submarines, undersea internet cables, and LNG tankers — over 100,000 Japanese soldiers died there in WWII.
• China uses salami tactics — incremental ship collisions and fait accompli — because no single step triggers retaliation, yet the cumulative territorial gain is large.
• Ukraine’s core lesson: nuclear-armed powers that seize territory almost never return it; sanctions slow but do not stop wars, making pre-conflict deterrence the only effective tool.
• US attention on Southeast Asia is structurally thin across administrations; Trump’s team enters meetings asking what deals benefit America, not what deters China long-term.
• North Korea acquired Shahed drone technology from Russia during the Ukraine war and can now mass-produce low-cost combat drones; NK troops have gained live combat experience, raising near-term regional risk.
• Tanaka’s three strategies for Japan: build maritime deterrence along sea lanes, redesign economic security law to fund non-commercial supply backups, and diversify procurement and basing away from Taiwan-dependent single points.

2026-04-26 · Watch on YouTube