Orucan Creator: Why US Overweight Is Fine and Stagnation Boosts Returns

Hideo Shirota, creator of Japan’s eMAXIS Slim Orucan fund, argues US concentration reflects market reality and that drawdown periods actually improve long-term dollar-cost-averaging outcomes.

• Orucan (MSCI ACWI) is ~65% US stocks as of Sept 2025; Shirota says this mirrors market-cap reality, not a structural flaw.
• Intentionally reducing Magnificent Seven or US weights to avoid concentration is active management — and active management historically underperforms passive.
• Dollar-cost averaging through a 50% drawdown that fully recovers produces higher cumulative returns than steady linear 1.5x growth over the same period.
• 20-year MSCI ACWI rolling returns are almost always positive (4–10%); 10-year windows can still turn negative, as seen post-Lehman.
• From a Dec 1998 baseline of 100, the MSCI ACWI index has grown to roughly 700+, approximately 7x, with ~9% annualized average return.
• Shirota personally holds ~70% Orucan and ~30% US equity funds; he invests his NISA allowance in a lump sum at year-start rather than monthly.
• Exit strategy should be needs-driven, not market-timing-driven; he recommends keeping ~10% in index funds even at age 90 to stay connected to global growth.
• Three principles for long-term investing: hold for 20+ years without selling, dollar-cost average within affordable limits, and diversify broadly across countries and companies.

2026-04-24 · Watch on YouTube