Why Stocks Keep Rising Even Through a Hormuz Crisis

Monex Securities chief strategist Takashi Hiroki explains the structural reasons equity prices sustain long-term gains through geopolitical shocks, and the case for Nikkei 100,000 by 2032.

• The Nikkei’s long-term trend is roughly 7% annualized. The past 50 years include the Global Financial Crisis, the 2011 earthquake, and the dot-com bust.
• Rule of 72: 72 ÷ 7.2% = 10 years to double. Nikkei 50,000 × 2 = 100,000, implying around 2032.
• With current returns running closer to 10%, the math shortens: 72 ÷ 10 = 7.2 years — still landing near 2032 for the 100,000 target.
• Hiroki’s own portfolio has compounded at 7% annually; a slight edge from professional positioning.
• The Strait of Hormuz situation is a short-term shock, not a structural force that changes the long-term trend.
• In an inflationary environment, companies can pass cost increases through to prices and margins stay intact.
• During deflation, any price hike chased customers away. Now that inflation is the baseline, consumers accept it.
• The pass-through chain — higher oil → higher plastic costs → higher dry-cleaning prices — protects corporate earnings.

2026-04-19 · Watch on YouTube

Japanese page: ホルムズ危機でも株が上がる理由