The End of Global Index Funds and the Case for Investing in Hokkaido

Kotaro Tamura argues that the collapse of the peace-and-free-trade assumptions underpinning global index funds signals their era is over, and proposes defense tech, food, and Hokkaido as the next concentrated investment themes.

• Global index funds were built on assumptions of peace and free trade. Normalized conflict is eroding that foundation
• By process of elimination, US dominance continues for 10–20 years: food and energy self-sufficiency, tech leadership, and the world’s deepest capital markets
• The next concentrated investment themes: defense tech, food production, and health and longevity
• Singapore investors are already moving into Hokkaido — the region is valued for its position on the Arctic shipping route and a food self-sufficiency rate of 200%
• During the Lehman crisis, Tamura proposed the government buy GM for $1; the Ministry of Finance rejected it as “gambling with public money”
• Singapore’s GIC is said to hold real assets comparable in scale to Japan’s pension reserves (roughly ¥250 trillion)
• His “ugly duckling” investment philosophy: the skill is finding a clean, empty restroom in a crowded venue before everyone else does

2026-04-20 · Watch on YouTube

Japanese page: オルカン終焉と北海道投資論