AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs

https://sequoiacap.com/article/ai-in-2026-the-tale-of-two-ais/
  • 2026 = delays in data centers + AGI timeline, but accelerating adoption.
  • Supply chain can’t match Big Tech CapEx demand; TSMC won’t force-ramp.
    • TSMC revenues +50% since 2022, CapEx only +10% (Ben Thompson, Oct 2025).
    • Industrial bottlenecks: generators, cooling, skilled labor across shared supply base.
  • AGI timeline slips to 2030s; Sutton, Karpathy, Sutskever all walked it back.
    • Risk: hyperscaler CapEx locked in for infrastructure that may be premature.
  • $0→$1B club emerging in 2026; $0→$100M club already proven in 2025.
    • Top AI startups: >$1M revenue per employee — market pull, not push.
  • Two killer apps: coding tools and ChatGPT, each approaching $10B+ revenue.
  • Enterprise DIY fatigue accelerating startup momentum — incumbents are losing.
  • AI startups using AI for legal, recruiting, sales — self-improving flywheel effect.

David Cahn (Sequoia Capital) · 2025-12-03 · Read on sequoiacap.com

Type Link
Added Dec 3, 2025
Modified Apr 15, 2026
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