Show HN: I built a tool that helps predict HN front page success

· ai · Source ↗

TLDR

  • WannaLaunch scores planned HN post titles and URLs against 1.6M historical posts to estimate front-page probability before submission.

Key Takeaways

  • Two models available: Show HN model trained on April 2023-2026 data; General HN model covering all post types from 2021-2026.
  • Optimal posting window is 12:00-18:00 UTC; Sunday is the top-performing day for Show HN submissions.
  • Title sweet spot is 60-80 characters; parentheticals like “(written in Rust)” or “(open source)” are flagged as positive signals.
  • GitHub repo or live demo URLs are scored higher than bare landing pages for Show HN posts.

Hacker News Comment Review

  • Commenters challenged the core definition of success: front-page score and eyeballs are a weak proxy for the real Show HN value, which is substantive conversation and direct feedback.
  • The tool scored its own submission 49/100 and recommended adding a parenthetical, exposing a gap between model output and actual community behavior.
  • Skepticism surfaced about vote manipulation, and one commenter noted HN’s moderator controls and shadow banning already limit gaming the ranking formula.

Notable Comments

  • @jofzar: Caught that the tool scored its own Show HN post 49/100 while it was live on the feed.
  • @gverrilla: “Show HN: I built a bicycle that runs on my fridge (written in Rust)” to illustrate how easily the model’s signals can be gamed for a perfect score.

Original | Discuss on HN