Was The War Against Japan Avoidable? - Sarah Paine

Naval War College historian Sarah Paine argues Japan’s path to war was sealed by 1936 assassinations, not by the 1941 oil embargo.

• The peace faction in Japan lost in February 1936 when Army officers assassinated Finance Minister Takahashi Korekiyo at his home.
• Takahashi had argued Empire would cost more than it yielded — he pulled Japan out of the Great Depression before the West did, via domestic stimulus.
• Hitler declared war on the US by interpreting his Japan alliance broadly; without that blunder, FDR would have had no political path to fight Nazis.
• Roosevelt’s core fear was Japan attacking Russia — if Russia fell, he believed the Nazis would win, making a Pacific war the lesser evil.
• The US oil embargo was designed to defend the international system, not just China; same logic Europeans now use to defend Ukraine against Russia.
• Prince Konoe, Japan’s 1941 prime minister, knew Japan would lose a war with America but could not control War Minister Tojo.
• Smoot-Hawley tariffs set hothouse conditions for fascism in Germany and Japan, closing off easier diplomatic options before the crisis peaked.

2025-01-22 · Watch on YouTube