SpaceX IPO and the Shock of Lunar Manufacturing

VC Takeshi Ebihara calls the SpaceX IPO a “paradigm shift for capital markets and human industry” — covering lunar industrial zones, cost curves, and a potential Tesla merger.

• SpaceX IPO projected market cap: roughly ¥300 trillion (~$2 trillion), placing it 7th–8th globally on debut
• Starlink accounts for two-thirds of revenue; rocket launches make up the remaining third
• The Moon — one-sixth gravity, no atmospheric drag, resource-rich — is the leading candidate for the next industrial zone in 20 years
• Once Starship drives launch costs down to tens of millions of dollars, lunar manufacturing crosses into profitability
• A SpaceX × Tesla merger could create a company surpassing Microsoft to rank 3rd–4th globally
• Space-based AI data centers offer 8× the power generation efficiency of ground-based facilities with no cooling required; an xAI merger is seen as the key enabler
• A mass driver that electromagnetically launches cargo from the Moon to Earth remains scientifically plausible at this stage
• Japanese deep-tech founders must go abroad — Singapore and the Middle East — to access the capital they need

2026-04-12 · Watch on YouTube

Japanese page: SpaceX上場と月面製造業の衝撃