Hiroki Takagi: Three Reasons Stocks Keep Rising and His 2032 Strategy

Monex Securities Chief Strategist Takagi Hiroki breaks down the fundamentals of equity investing — inflation, earnings growth, and survivorship bias — and lays out a US/Japan/China allocation strategy toward 2032.

• Stocks rise for three universal reasons: ① inflation ② corporate earnings growth ③ survivorship bias in indices — historical annualized return is roughly 7%
• The total number of TSE-listed shares has fallen for seven consecutive years due to buybacks — scarcity pushes prices up through the same mechanism as inflation
• After corporate governance reforms spread PBR above 1x, the next challenge is shifting to a market where stocks are bought on growth expectations
• For 2032, his allocation framework comes down to three choices: the US, Japan, and China — China is assessed as ahead of the US in specific areas of AI and robotics
• Why high-dividend stocks outperform remains an unsolved mystery in academia — that said, progressive-dividend stocks (those that have pledged never to cut dividends) show particularly strong performance
• Japan’s cash-heavy household behavior was shaped by 30 years of deflation — average new-build condo prices in Tokyo exceeding ¥100 million may be what finally shifts inflation awareness
• Citing medical advances — GLP-1 drugs, Alzheimer’s treatment, brain-computer interfaces — Takagi himself plans to stay 100% in equities until age 150

2026-04-26 · Watch on YouTube

Japanese page: 広木隆：株が上がり続ける3つの理由と2032年戦略