The Stack Above the Cloud

• Space infrastructure window mirrors AWS 2006 or NVIDIA 1990s.
  • AI infra window is closed: priced in, capital-intensive, moated.
  • Space still fragmented — broad VC opportunity across stack layers.
• Four-layer stack: Launch → Satellites → Data/Compute → Positioning.
• SpaceX owns ~50% of global launches; consolidation already advancing.
  • Stoke Space: precision positioning as differentiated launch play.
  • Apex applies automotive mass production to satellite manufacturing.
• 4,526 U.S. satellites launched in 2025 — volume unlocking new economics.
• Space-based data centers shifted from “insane” to serious (Starcloud).
• High-precision GPS unlocks autonomy + AR via companies like Earthtraq.
• Upper stack layers (compute, nav) still undefined — window closing fast.

Morgan Beller (NFX GP) and Daniel Museles (NFX Principal) · 2026-02-06 · Read on nfx.com