Ports, Rails, Roads, and Orbits

• Space launch costs follow containerization’s 36x collapse — exactly.
  • Shuttle: $54,500/kg → Falcon 9: $2,700/kg → Starship target: <$100/kg.
  • McLean’s container shipping: $5.86/ton → $0.16/ton in 1956.
• Second-order effects are always unpredictable — railroads invented time zones.
  • Automobiles created suburbia, installment credit, shopping malls.
  • Sears was railroad-era e-commerce; who’s the Sears of orbit?
• Stoke Space’s 24-hour turnaround converts launch from event to infrastructure.
• GPS failure already costs U.S. economy $1B/day — orbit is load-bearing.
• U.S. has a one-to-two decade window before China/India erode the lead.
  • China building reusable launch + orbital supercomputers in parallel.
• NFX bets on infrastructure layer: launch, servicing, positioning, orbital compute.
  • Portfolio: EarthTraq (tracking), Starcloud (orbital computing).

Daniel Museles (Principal, NFX) and Morgan Beller (GP, NFX) · 2026-02-18 · Read on nfx.com