Horace Dediu argues Apple’s scale and long-term supplier leverage insulate it from the 2026 memory price spike that could push memory to 40% of device BOM.
Key Takeaways
Memory could rise from 15% to 40% of device BOM; the spike is concentrated in marginal/spot pricing, not base-load contracts Apple negotiates on.
Apple uses volume commitments and long-term supplier relationships as leverage, threatening to walk post-cycle if suppliers don’t offer favorable base rates now.
Samsung memory profits are reportedly exceeding Nvidia GPU profits, making memory the hottest semiconductor category of 2026.
Smaller competitors without Apple’s checkbook may be locked out of supply, potentially collapsing marginal Android OEMs and handing Apple share.
Dediu speculates Apple could absorb margin compression (49% to 45% gross margin) and launch a $499 iPhone to eliminate weakened rivals.
Hacker News Comment Review
Only one comment surfaced; the sole signal is that the memory crunch is framed as a structural competition problem, not a cyclical blip.
No substantive technical debate on supply chain mechanics, Apple’s contract structures, or the Samsung memory profit claim appeared in discussion.
