Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”

Dario Amodei tells Dwarkesh Patel he is 90% confident AGI arrives by 2035 and warns the world is dangerously unprepared for how close we are.

• Amodei puts 90% probability on AGI (country of geniuses in a data center) by 2035, calling skepticism outside the mainstream.
• Anthropic revenue grew 10x annually: ~$100M in 2023, ~$1B in 2024, ~$9-10B in 2025, with several billion more added in January 2026 alone.
• RL scaling follows the same log-linear improvement curve as pre-training scaling — Amodei sees no fundamental difference between the two regimes.
• Coding productivity gains are currently around 15-20% total factor speedup, up from ~5% six months ago — not yet transformative but accelerating.
• A METR study found developers using AI models reported feeling more productive but were actually 20% less productive by output metrics.
• Amodei opposes selling AI chips and data centers to China on national security grounds, even accepting the positive-sum economic cost of that restriction.
• Claude’s constitution uses principles over rules because rule-list training produces inconsistent generalization; Anthropic runs public constitutions so outside observers can compare and critique competing AI value systems.

2026-02-13 · Watch on YouTube