2025年のソフトウェア、2026年のソフトウェア

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Summary based on the YouTube transcript and episode description.

ALL STAR SAAS FUND’s Maeda Hiro and Minato Masayuki declare 2025 a ‘wartime’ year for software and lay out 6 investment themes and 5 winning principles for 2026.

  • US AI ‘supernova’ companies (e.g. Cursor, Mercor, Harvey) hit ARR ¥10B in under 3 years vs. 7 years for prior-era cloud leaders.\n- 64% of all VC dollars in 2025 flowed into AI, concentrating capital and inflating multiples at the top.\n- Palantir’s revenue multiple surged from 28.4x to 86.3x; ARR crossed ¥500B with 68% growth and a Rule of 40 score near 100.\n- Japan’s listed SaaS median PSR sits at ~4x (20-year average: 7.3x) — no AI breakout stock has yet appeared on public markets.\n- Software-service boundary is dissolving: AI is beginning to replace SIs, BPO, and consulting budgets, not just software spend.\n- Six 2026 investment themes: outsourcing replacement, voice AI, regulated-industry verticals, physical-world AI, prosumer tools, cybersecurity/GRC.\n- Key 2026 principle: accumulate leverage (proprietary data, distribution, org capability) rather than chasing short-term AI project revenue.

2025-12-22 · Watch on YouTube