Modelbusters

• Modelbusters: companies that massively outperform financial forecasts via platform shifts.
  • AI = “biggest platform shift of our lives” — new modelbuster wave incoming.
• Two failure modes analysts miss: TAM underestimation and new product lines.
  • iPhone analysts called it a niche exec gadget; Apple hit 10M units in 15 months.
  • Roblox scaled to 61M DAU 13+ years old — nobody modeled that.
• CrowdStrike built 29 modules on one cloud arch; 112% net retention, $500M new ARR/yr.
  • Growth without new customers — existing base compounds.
• Anduril: built products first, unlocked $3T DoD budget inaccessible to startups.
• Four signals: “what” not “how”, pull not push, network effects, compounded growth.
  • Each growth point ≈ 2× more value than a margin point.
• AI infra buildout >$1T over 5 years — exceeds shale, broadband, space combined.

David George & Santiago Rodriguez — a16z Growth (Aug 7, 2025) · 2025-08-07 · Read on a16z.com