Infinite Healthcare: What's It Worth?

• AI eliminates clinician scarcity — the rate-limiter that kept care expensive.
  • Like compute in AI: more throughput, near-zero marginal cost.
• Jevons Paradox applies: telecom, music both exploded usage post-flat-rate pricing.
  • Healthcare pricing must shift from per-unit to access-based models.
• 5% of patients = 50% of US spend; AI targets this cohort first.
  • Medication adherence alone saves $1,300–$7,800/person/year.
• 1.6M people working one extra year = $260B incremental GDP.
  • Five extra years: $1.3T output + $485B combined fiscal impact.
• Four pricing layers: per-task, per-workflow, per-episode, per-patient (unlimited).
  • Valar Labs (pathology), Hippocratic AI (voice agents), Thyme Care (oncology nav), Counsel Health (triage).
• Real problem is spend composition — reactive to proactive — not total volume.
• Contrarian frame: rising usage is success, not failure.

Jay Rughani, Jane Rhee, and Julie Yoo (a16z Bio + Health) · 2026-02-26 · Read on a16z.com