Why Apple Needs a Management Overhaul & Why Google is Catching Up with Hyperscalers
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Rory O’Driscoll and Jason Lemkin argue Google has outexecuted Apple and Microsoft on AI, while Figma’s $30B IPO barely registers against vibe-coding hype.
- Google is executing best among big tech on AI; Apple has no working product, Microsoft doesn’t fully own what it bought.
- Figma IPO expected to return ~$1B each to four VC firms, yet generates almost no buzz compared to 2022 Adobe acquisition news.
- VC holding periods now exceed tech cycles: Figma took 12-13 years to IPO and its S1 already discusses needing to adapt to AI.
- AI capex at 1.2% of US GDP already exceeds the bandwidth-boom peak (1.1%); railroad mania hit 6% annually before crashing.
- Jason Lemkin spending $6,000/month on Claude credits; predicts Cursor hits $4B ARR and Lovable hits $400M ARR by end of 2026.
- Benchmark has strong AI portfolio despite partner churn: Hey Gen, Sierra, Manis AI, Lorra — all with double-digit ownership in one fund.
- Elad Gil ignores LP advice on fund discipline, focus, and board seats repeatedly — and LPs keep funding him anyway, signaling LP rules are eroding.
- OpenAI valuation at $800B by end of 2026: Rory says under, Harry says over citing GPT-5, Codex, and Jony Ive product launch.
2025-07-31 · Watch on YouTube
