Predictions for 2026: Top Buy & Biggest Short | Why Salesforce Could Win & NVIDIA’s Challenges

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Summary based on the YouTube transcript and episode description.

Jason Lemkin and Rory O’Driscoll on 20VC make 2026 predictions, naming Salesforce as the contrarian buy and calling SpaceX the first IPO of the year.

  • Salesforce trades at 5–5.5x revenue, an all-time low multiple, down 30% in 2025; Jason’s top contrarian buy on AgentForce attach-rate potential.
  • Rory buys Google, shorts Nvidia for 2026; Jason disagrees — competing TPUs cannot be manufactured fast enough to erode Nvidia demand within 12 months.
  • Jason predicts four 2026 IPOs in order: SpaceX first, then Canva, Databricks, Anthropic; OpenAI burns too much cash to go public before mid-2027.
  • Hummingbird 8x’d a $100M seed fund as first investor in Lovable; Benchmark named top Series A fund for backing Manis, Sierra, Cerebras, and LangChain.
  • ElevenLabs hit $400M ARR; OpenEvidence captured 500,000 of ~1M US doctors in one year, monetizing via pharmaceutical ad targeting.
  • Databricks named 2025’s best AI wave rider: $5B ARR at 55% accelerating growth, while Snowflake’s AI revenue remains comparatively small.
  • Adobe labeled the worst AI offender: claimed $5B in ‘AI-influenced revenue’ with no net-new bookings, compressing margins without a real revenue lift.
  • If unemployment rises 2–3 points for any reason, AI executives have publicly admitted culpability — backlash would dwarf current anti-tech sentiment.

2025-12-22 · Watch on YouTube

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