Peter Thiel and Softbank Sell NVIDIA - Why? & Why VC Will Hit $1TRN and The Opening of Retail

Tomasz Tunguz, Jason Lemkin, and Rory O’Driscoll argue private markets have permanently inverted the IPO premium and a retail capital tsunami will push VC past $500B AUM.

• Cursor raised $2.3B at $29.3B with ~30 employees and minimal capex, unlike foundation model companies that dilute on infrastructure.
• Microsoft counts 100–150M developers on GitHub, up from prior industry estimate of 25–30M, implying a $500B–$1T TAM at $5K/year per developer.
• Private markets have inverted: the historical 20–30% illiquidity discount is now a 20–30% access premium over public multiples.
• IPO transaction costs run $25–30M (6–7% of a $300–400M raise) vs ~$1M for a late-stage private round, structurally killing IPO incentives for top names.
• Mid-market agentic software deals are now regularly closing at seven figures, up from the $20–75K range typical a year ago.
• Cursor’s gross margins are structurally unclear because token spend flows directly to Anthropic and OpenAI, its own competitors; Replit and Lovable already run 50%+ GM using cheaper models.
• Tomasz predicts OpenAI IPO targets Q3 2026 but likely slips to mid-2027 as alternative private financing sources keep emerging.
• Incoming retail capital via 401k ETF chains (a16z has $3B in retail funds, GCB accelerating) could push VC AUM past $500B before end of decade, with a 5–7 year lag before poor returns force correction.

2025-11-20 · Watch on YouTube